Democrats bask in their joy after a four-day party in Chicago. Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t content with just being in a good mood.
“Now listen, we’ve got 75 more days,” Harris told reporters as he left the United Center Thursday night after delivering his rousing acceptance speech. “Maybe for better or for worse, that’s who I am. That was good, now we have to move on.”
Party leaders repeatedly urged during the week that despite all the positivity running through the party, tougher times lie ahead.
“Kamala Harris had a spectacular week that capped off a remarkable month,” former Obama White House senior adviser David Axelrod wrote on X. “But this is a tightly divided country, and the race will now be a fierce battle for every inch of turf in battleground states field’.
On Friday, Trump tried to get some attention by touting the support of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy’s polls collapsed over the summer, but Trump is hoping that in a potentially extremely close race, prominent supporters of vaccine skeptics will push him over the edge in key states.
“This is good news for President Trump and his campaign, plain and simple,” Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a statement released by the campaign.
Kennedy has vowed to try to get his name off the ballot in 10 swing states, though it remains uncertain whether he will be able to do so with all efforts. As election law expert Derek T. Mueller pointed out to X, Wisconsin only removes a candidate’s name if he dies — meaning some sort of zombie candidacy could continue.
Both primary candidates are expected to return to the campaign trail in the coming days ahead of their first debate on September 10 in Philadelphia. It will be the first time Harris has met Harris and the first debate since President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in June changed the race.
Republicans hope the appearance of the debates will force Harris to confront his record. Harris is running toward the center on key issues like health care and fracking in an effort to move beyond the progressive policy positions he took during his 2020 Democratic primary campaign.
The Trump campaign tried to push Harris for an interview that would likely further probe her changing views. Still, she has so far focused on campaigning across the country — enjoying the free media attention her crowded rallies generate.
If history holds, Harris’ momentum could stretch even further. Traditionally, candidates received a boost in the polls after the convention. Harris has a 1.5 percentage point lead in national polls, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. That’s a huge change from Biden’s back-to-back struggles, but it’s far from an insurmountable lead. In 1988, then-Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead in late July before Vice President George HW Bush overtook him and won the election.
Trump advisers have tried to warn that Harris will soar in the polls, calling this period her “honeymoon.” But Trump has so far struggled to stick to a consistent attack on her. He further returns to form by undermining his message by claiming that she is not actually black and feuding with other Republicans. On Thursday night, Trump tried to squash his beef with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, perhaps moving past a renewed feud that threatened to derail his chances in the key state.
The former president also shook up his campaign management, bringing former 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski back into the fold. Trump wants to find the magic that powered his 2016 upset, but it’s unclear how successful that will be if he continues to stray from his message.
One of the biggest concerns for Harris is that Trump still leads on metrics that are often key to the race. Biden remains quite unpopular. A Gallup poll found that 73% were dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
There are some signs that Harris has reduced Trump’s grip on the economy, but a recent ABC News-Washington Post-Ipsos poll found he still had a 9 percentage point lead over Harris when voters were asked who they believed would did more. Trump also had a 10-point lead on immigration. The same poll found that voters view Harris as much more favorable than Trump.
It’s also worth noting that because of the large number of Americans who vote before Election Day, no campaign can wait until November 5th to reach its peak. Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state, begins early voting on September 16, less than a week after the first debate.